Transfers: Should you be buying that youth player?

Don't pay for youth if you aren't prepared to properly develop it

I remember when I first started playing I was very much infatuated with the allure of signing every "The next so-and-so" that I ended up wasting huge chunks of my budgets and ended up stunting many of their developments because I was never able to find first team experience for them.  There are a few major requisites that I now use as a guideline for what sort of youngsters I bring into my clubs.

Adequate coaching

This to me means having at least four stars in every category because if, for instance, you are taking a player from a weaker team where he'll actually receive first team appearances and putting him in your reserves you had better have remarkably better coaching than his previous team otherwise you'll not be doing him or or self any favors.  

A realistic plan for him in the first team

But, even if you have a full five star coaching staff and the the weaker side who'll give him real playing time has a 3 star staff, he'll likely still develop more efficiently at the weaker club because first team exposure is the most important in a player's development.  So my suggestion is this:

-If he's less than 18/19 years old and it looks like he'll be getting regular playing time there, let him stay and add him to your short list indefinitely so you'll always know if another bigger club comes looking to sign him at which time you will forced to try as well before losing your chance for good.  Consider it like sort of loaning him there for a while but with the likelihood you'll have to give him higher wages if another club comes snooping around.

-If he's 18/19 or older AND he is good enough to be a backup to your first choice then sign him and rotate him in when necessary. A good example of this is Sime Vrsalijko.  He starts off aged 18 and is fully capable of playing RB in league games every once and while and starting every cup match (He is also able to play LB, DM and MC with decent effectiveness so that's a bonus in case your midfield's really plagued with injuries).

There are of course a few exceptions to this as there will be some 14-16 year olds on big-medium size clubs who likely have the same to offer the player as you do (Great coaching but very limited first team exposure).  These guys would be OK to sign right off the bat assuming they don't break the bank because you must also keep in mind that you need to get, on average, one or two youth players a year under the age of 17 in order for them to have Home Grown eligibility later on down the road when you've either sold all your current Home Growns or they've retired.

Always question your scouts' judgement

In my experience the scouting of very young regens is never very accurate.  This is due in part to the fact many regens have oddly high/low attributes that don't really translate in them being good at their position but still enhance a scouts view on their potential.  One of the most common examples I see is midfielders having 18 or 19 Penalty abilities at the age 15.  This makes no sense in the real world but for some reason if that midfielder had a clone who had every one of the same ratings in other categories but an 8 in Penalties, the first one would likely be a half star or so better than the second.

Remember

When you intake new youth players, so does every other club.  So, once you receive word that your new players have arrived you should immediately have your scouts look at the major nations' for player 16 and under because there is now a whole new crop of players.  It is very important to do this as early as possible because if you get to them in time you can sign them and only have to pay a compensation fee rather than a transfer fee that'll likely be many times that.

Player of the Week: Darijo Srna

Darijo Srna (aged 29, RB / RWB / RM, Shakhtar Donestk) 

Despite playing with Arsenal and already having a cracking RB with the brilliant Bacary Sagna I still opted to sell him (for aprx 17mil) and bought Srna ( for 15mil).  He is a little old for my liking and not the best defensively (Jumping 10, Marking 12, Positioning 12, Concentration 13) especially compared to Sagna but his plus side, in my experience, far exceeds his age and slight defensive lapse.

Firstly, he doesn't rely too heavily on his speed or strength so you can get a couple extra years out of him, offsetting his age a bit.  By far his most valuable ability comes in the form of set pieces and crossing with a Freekick of 19, Crossing of 18 and Corners at 14 you will find him scoreing at least a handful of goals every year and contribute plenty of assists.  He's the only RB I've ever had to regularly win MOTM 5-10 times a season (currently 32 games and 8 MOTM) and his match rating is usually 7.50 or higher.

I'm also a huge fan of anyone who's a work horse and Srna epitomizes the term having 15 Tackling, 17 Stamina and 20 in each Aggression, Bravery, Teamwork and Work Rate.  So if you think your CBs are good enough to cope with his slightly poor aerial ability than definitely go out and try and get this guy because not only will Shakhtar sell quite easily, he will almost certainly  not stay there as your rivals will almost certainly snap him up and he'll playing against you.

Note this was taken in 2013 so stats may vary slightly

Quick Tip: Free Transfers

During every summer be sure to prudently look into what players' contracts have expired.  Many times players who you wouldn't expect to go on free transfers in real life leave their clubs in FM. 


I tend to employ a notion of general distrust when it comes to my scouts, and especially when it comes to players released on frees.  In this case it's because when a player's contract expires your scouts recognize him has no longer having a value meaning if you use a search for players with expired contracts you will only be able to sort by position and abilities making it very likely that you'll overlook a good signing.  I usually go and check the transfer page for each of major leagues and look at every player who has transferred to "Free".

*NOTE This screenshot comes from Jan. 2013






Here you can see the likes of van Nistelrooy, Antonio Lopez, Drethe and Hleb are all available on frees, something you likely wouldn't know unless you had either a) previously scouted them or b) spotted them in the raw list of every player in the world whose contract had expired.

The Importance of Utilizing Debt

When transfers take place in the real world we often hear of enormous sums of money being thrown around.  These fees are rarely, if ever, paid in full on the day of the transfer.  Teams do not just write 20-something million pound checks against their own bank accounts, they pay a small percentage as a down payment and the majority over time much like normal people pay for houses or cars. 

Assuming the overall financial health of your club is relatively secure, this is what you should do too.  Being an Arsenal  fan I know all too well that having a tactical magician at the reins of your club in today's game can only get you so far. It is now required that you also be a savvy business man and bring in quality players to carry out your tactical masterpiece. 

Getting Down to Business

There are three factors you need to carefully take into consideration once you've found your next transfer target.

1. How much you think it'll cost to bring the player in

2. How much cash you have on hand

3. How far into debt you're willing to go

The following chart is pretty rough but I've found these percentages of cash to be the minimum you have to offer in order to have your bid accepted.  There are of course other lesser factors that are a bit more ambiguous such as the financial health of the other club, whether or not they'll even consider selling and the players desires. 

Estimated Asking Price (in millions of pounds)	Percent Cash	Percent Debt
Less than 5	10	90
6 to 10	15	85
11 to 15	20	80
16 to 20	30	70
21 to 30	40	60
Greater Than 30	50	50

It is important to note that while consistently using a lot of debt can help you bulk up your squad in the short term, your future transfer budgets will likely be diminished significantly.

Interpreting your Scout's estimated selling price

The most important part of the above list is #1.  Determining what the total cost of the transfer will be (cash+debt) can be somewhat tricky and you should play around with it yourself to get a good feel.

After scouting a player your report will include a rough estimate of what the club will be looking for in terms of a fee.  This can be considered the amount you will have to offer only if your bid consists of almost entirely of cash.  So, if you plan on using even a moderate amount of debt, you will have to exceed that amount in the following fashion

Example:

Scout Report say club wants an estimated  22.5 million

Hypothetical 1:  Pay 15 mil cash and 9 mil debt

     

    Total Bill = 24 mil

Hypothetical 2:  Pay 5 mil cash and 22 debt

    Total Bill = 27 mil

Both options would likely see the offer being accepted but it's your choice as to what your long term / short term goals are.  As stated above your long term success can be hurt by too much debt. In addition, your total transfer bill for each player can be reduced if you pay more now than later.  Starting off I generally opt for a general transfer policy closer to Hypothetical 2 in order to add 3-4 quality players to a team and then, as time goes on and I need less players, I tend to pay more now.

Other factors to take into account

1. If the player is transfer listed, the club will be much more likely to accept a lot of debt instead of cash now and you usually don't have to exceed the estimate regardless of the ratio.

2. Dealing with less wealthy/poor performing clubs also allows you to utilize more debt if you wish.  I remember during one save with Arsenal in FM 11 Manchester United were somewhere in the middle of the table in January of the second season making Vidic unhappy and I was able to grab him for something like 19 mil pounds.

A little bit about me

Having lived my whole life in the U.S. I did not grow up with any loyalties to any club so for me, the allure of starting off with lower league teams and working my way up isn't too appealing.  That doesn't mean I just choose Barcalona or Man U and win everything, I just like having teams that have decent starting squads and fairly deep pockets (Athletico, Liverpool, Arsenal, PSG).  But that's just me and I'm sure if I get bored enough I'll go ahead and try it sometime but for time being I usually like to manage my favorite club, Arsenal, and try and tweak their tactics and add some class players in order to win major domestic and European silverware.  If you are operate along the same lines (i.e. managing with multi million pound budgets) then these tips will apply to you.  If you don't then most of them will not or will have to be altered.